Sample briefs

Sample brief: Should we raise prices 15%?

Updated 20 July 2026

This is a complete worked Executive Decision Brief for a pricing decision — a 15% rise. It shows how Cerno handles a decision with strong second-order effects: the recommendation to stage the change, the dissent on the record, and the risk and confidence scores that tell you how much to trust it.

Cerno is a private AI boardroom that runs consequential decisions through a structured process and returns a brief like the one below. This example is illustrative; your own would reflect your margins and customer base.

Executive Decision Brief

Should we raise prices 15% this quarter?

Recommendation

Raise, but stage it — 15% for new customers now, existing customers at their next renewal with 60 days' notice and a grandfather window.

Confidence

—

Risk

Med

Vote

4–1

Illustrative brief · Evidence Mode on

How this brief was reached

The advisors formed independent positions, a Devil's Advocate challenged the leading one, and the vote landed 4–1 in favour — with the Customer Advocate's dissent kept on the record. The Chairperson's recommendation isn't just "yes": it's how to do it, because the staging is what converts a risky one-way move into a reversible test. Confidence is solid but not high, reflecting genuine uncertainty about elasticity.

The frameworks behind it

This decision turns on second-order thinking — what customers and competitors do after the rise — and on reversibility: staging is the move that keeps a one-way door two-way while you learn.

Weighing a price change? Put your version through the boardroom and get a brief like this with your own numbers.

Run this decision in Cerno

Frequently asked

Why 'stage it' rather than a flat rise?

Because a flat, immediate rise on existing customers is close to a one-way door — churn among your earliest customers is hard to win back. Staging (new customers now, existing at renewal) keeps the move reversible and tests elasticity before you're fully committed.

One-way vs two-way door decisions

Some decisions are reversible (two-way doors) and some aren't (one-way doors). Telling them apart tells you how much deliberation a decision deserves. Here's the model, popularised by Jeff Bezos, with a worked example.

Second-order thinking, with examples

Second-order thinking asks 'and then what?' — tracing the consequences of the consequences, not just the first result. Here's how to do it, why first-order thinking misleads, and a worked example.

Sample brief: Should we open a second site?

A complete worked Executive Decision Brief for a business expansion decision — recommendation, recorded vote with dissent, risk and confidence scores, assumptions and next actions. Illustrative and anonymised.