How to make the decision well.
Genuinely useful guides to the decisions that matter — the frameworks that fit, the mistakes to avoid, and a worked Executive Decision Brief on every page. Cerno is a private AI boardroom that puts your decision through a structured process and hands you the brief.
Comparisons
How Cerno compares — fairly.Decision guides
How to make a specific decision well.How to keep a decision journal
Record what you chose, why, and what you expected, so a year on you can see how you actually decide. The format, what to log, and what it shows you.
Read →How to get people to disagree with you
Nobody challenges the person who signs the invoices. Six ways to get real disagreement out of a team, a partner or an adviser — and why it isn't there.
Read →How to decide with almost no data
Most real decisions are made without the numbers. Five ways to decide well anyway, and how to spot a decision that will never be settled by evidence.
Read →How to decide when you're the only one in the room
Sole traders make every consequential decision alone. Four ways to get disagreement, distance and a record without a board — and what each costs.
Read →Decision frameworks
The thinking tools, explained with worked examples.Second-order thinking, with examples
Second-order thinking asks 'and then what?' — the consequences of the consequences. Why first-order thinking misleads, and a worked example.
Read →The regret minimisation framework
Which choice will you regret least, looking back from old age? The regret minimisation framework for big decisions, with a worked example.
Read →Reference-class forecasting and base rates
Predict an outcome from how similar cases actually turned out — the base rate — instead of your inside view. The method, with a worked example.
Read →Pre-mortem: the template, with worked examples
A pre-mortem imagines the decision has already failed and works back to why. The five-step template, worked examples, and how to run one properly.
Read →One-way door decisions: meaning and examples
What a one-way door decision means, how it differs from a two-way door, and small-business examples: leases, hires, partners, prices.
Read →Inversion: the mental model, explained
Inversion solves a problem backwards: ask what would guarantee failure, then avoid it. The model, a five-step method, and a worked business example.
Read →Sample briefs
Complete worked Executive Decision Briefs.Sole trader or limited company?
A worked Executive Decision Brief on incorporating: corporation tax, salary and dividends at 2026-27 rates, admin, liability and when it isn't worth it.
Read →Should I register for VAT voluntarily?
A worked Executive Decision Brief on registering for VAT below the £90,000 threshold: customer mix, reclaiming VAT, the Flat Rate Scheme and the admin.
Read →Should I join Making Tax Digital early?
A worked Executive Decision Brief on signing up to Making Tax Digital for Income Tax before you must: thresholds, dates, quarterly updates and penalties.
Read →Should I chase a late payment?
A worked Executive Decision Brief on chasing a late-paying client: relationship vs cash, statutory interest, letters before action and small claims.
Read →Should I accept an inside IR35 contract?
A worked Executive Decision Brief for contractors offered an inside IR35 role: take-home, umbrella vs deemed employment, the rate and disputing the SDS.
Read →Should I take the client at a lower rate?
A worked Executive Decision Brief on a discount: hold the rate, offer a smaller scope instead, and the dissent for the door-opener client.
Read →Should I take on a business partner?
A worked Executive Decision Brief on taking a partner: why the board said not yet, the paid-collaboration alternative, and the dissent for momentum.
Read →Should I take investment or bootstrap?
A worked Executive Decision Brief on outside money: why the board said bootstrap for now, the named-use test for raising, and the dissent for speed.
Read →Should I sign a three-year lease?
A worked Executive Decision Brief on a three-year lease: the break clause that changes the answer, the rolling alternative, and the CFO's dissent.
Read →Should I rebrand?
A worked Executive Decision Brief on rebranding: fix the positioning first, the test for when the name really is the problem, and the CMO's dissent.
Read →Should I outsource it or build it in-house?
A worked Executive Decision Brief on build versus buy: outsource the first version, bring it in-house on evidence, and the CTO's dissent.
Read →Should I hire my first employee?
A worked Executive Decision Brief on a first hire: whether to take someone on, how to make it reversible, and the CFO's dissent on the record.
Read →Should I go full-time on the business?
A worked Executive Decision Brief on leaving the job: the trigger the board set instead of a date, the runway rule, and the CFO's dissent on the record.
Read →Should I fire this client?
A worked Executive Decision Brief on ending a client relationship: the fix-or-fire conversation that comes first, the managed exit, and the CFO's dissent.
Read →Should I drop my cheapest tier?
A worked Executive Decision Brief on removing an entry-level plan: close it to new customers, grandfather the rest, and the dissent on the record.
Read →Should I buy the van or lease it?
A worked Executive Decision Brief on a first vehicle: lease while utilisation is unproven, when buying wins, and the CFO's case for owning.
Read →Should we raise prices 15%?
A worked Executive Decision Brief on raising prices 15%: why the board said stage it, the grandfather window, and the Customer Advocate's dissent.
Read →Should we open a second site?
A worked Executive Decision Brief on opening a second site: the staged commitment, the demand test that comes before the lease, and the CFO's dissent.
Read →Should I take the counteroffer?
A worked Executive Decision Brief on a counteroffer: why the board leaned against, what would change its mind, and the dissent for the certain money.
Read →Buy the house or keep renting?
A worked Executive Decision Brief for buy vs rent — the horizon that decides it, the buffer test, and the dissent for roots. Not financial advice.
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